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How M$ will take posses over the Linux realm...

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Today I am inspired... 😎
there will always be a safe land for those who wants freedom. ms vs linux is not a question of market share, it's a question of freedom.

if we'll have to switch to a different desktop, to get rid of systemd, to stop using some software, to downgrade to old hardware, we'll do it. Of course the majority of users will be trapped. But they are already trap : facebouc account, touiteur adress, gogle mail, amazones or azurt cloud, gogle docs. What advantages for them to have free software ? we don't care about them.

what we want, is a possibility to be free for those who wants it. and there will always a way.
Urm...since when does Canonical or Ubuntu hold so much sway over Linux? Not to mention the GPL? Last time I checked, most proprietary systems just grab the parts of open source community that they like, then bury that fact within lengthy license agreements. No need to make any major organizational purchases. I tried out Ubuntu once...not really to my liking. Have you ever been to Linux From Scratch can be an enlightening experience.
I would not underestimate Ubuntu, it got a very large base on the internet as well as on AWS. We could say that today is almost a standard... :(

Linux From Scratch can be a way to real freedom
Just one big weak link with this plan - Debian. Ubuntu is still based on Debian, and numerous Ubuntu based distros have hopped between the two over the years. If this happened, it would cause most Ubuntu based distros to switch over to Debian permanently.

It has always been the case that Ubuntu has needed Debian (almost entirely) than Debian has needed Ubuntu (none at all).

Amazon, of course, would switch ASAP. They need a partner that isn't commited to destroying them.

And let's not forget that practically no one uses WSL. It's a joke. Windows 10 users aren't hurting for applications only available in Linux, and Linux users have no reason to desire the maintenance headaches and performance penalty of Windows 10.
Debian would be the weak link in the meaning the M$ would have less direct control over it but when it will become a major sponsor it will able to get some favoritism and a lot of devs would be happy to help M$ if this would convert in a prospect job...

Without considering that Ubuntu has many times declared that Ubuntu might be shipped as snap without being based on Debian anymore. I also think that a "M$ Ubuntu" would be tailored specifically for Win/Azure with a massive reduction of packages to maintain in the main repo. As for now all the contribution of M$ on Linux are just for WSL and Azure, nothing will change with Ubuntu in its portfolio.

Amazon would be of course really in danger with the problem that people has the habit to work on Ubuntu and won't change because of that, a lot of people really don't care about those stuff.

I think that everything will trigger when Ubuntu will be fully integrated, probably with WSL3, don't know, but M$ and Canonical are fully commit on make this happen.
and isn't steam's linux client tailored for ubuntu ?
They wouldn't gain users with windows integration, though. There's just no getting around the fact that extremely few users want to maintain two different OS's.

The appeal of the linux distros you're talking about is that it's easier to maintain than Windows - but that only works if you eliminate the Windows install! This is what makes WSL such a joke. Other than a few technically minded tinkerers, no one wants it.

And most of them get more flexibility and power with existing VM solutions.

I never install Ubuntu for anyone else - only Debian. It's less of a headache for me to maintain just Debian.

That said, I do use (text console only) Ubuntu on Azure. For a simple web server Ubuntu's practically the same, and Azure makes it easier to spin up an Ubuntu VM than a Debian VM. (I have a free to me MSDN account thanks to work; it includes some free-to-me Azure. It's just a mirror of my Debian web server, though.)
Well, so what about Ubuntu's presence on AWS? For a server, it's practically the same as Debian and not really all that different from other popular GNU/Linux distributions. Mirroring/migrating from Ubuntu to Debian or even something else entirely would be very easy.

It lacks the sort of vendor lock-in of MS/IIS/MS SQL Server/etc. If you wanted to migrate off of IIS, then ... good luck with that! To what? How?

If Amazon wanted to migrate from Ubuntu to Debian? Almost as easy as flipping a switch (rsync over data files and etc config files). And this is something Amazon would be extremely compelled to do if Microsoft bought Canonical. You can't leave that sort of Sword of Damocles hanging over your neck when your ruthless competitor buys the scissors to drop it on you.
There are several difference between Ubuntu server and Debian that make the former really tailored for professional use. The former is a product the latter is a community distro.

The new Ubuntu server installer is amazing, zfs is available, all the blobs are available by default in Ubuntu. At the end of the day is pretty much the same thing, but Ubuntu is made for making the job easier, Debian is made for Debian.
There already is Ubuntu on Azure - I use it myself. It uses the normal repositories, but it also has a few Azure specific packages to do ... I don't know exactly what, but I suppose it does the "glue" stuff for you to monitor your Ubuntu VMs through the Azure interface.

I don't see how a specialized repository for Azure would help them at all. It's just more work, for zero benefit. If you mean they would slash the main repository so any GUI stuff will be offloaded to community repositories? Okay, maybe they do that. They then completely destroy any reason for any Ubuntu desktop users to stick with it, though. Desktop Ubuntu would simply become Debian Sid downstream, for all practical purposes.

I mean, they're Microsoft they might do it. "Buy it to kill it" ... they do that all the time.

But it's the possibility of just that sort of BS that makes Debian so popular and robust ... people join up and keep it going because it won't get bought and killed on the whim of Mr. Moneybags.
Why do you want blobs on a server? I dunno ... my experience with running both Ubuntu and Debian servers in parallel is that Debian gives me fewer headaches. I think this mainly boils down to the fact that Debian has been really committed to Debian Stable for a long time, while Ubuntu LTS is just sort of tacked on. Ubuntu's focus has always been on the Desktop and it shows.
My experience is mostly based on the desktop use case, and when I said binary blobs I would mean that Ubuntu is quite tolerant when is time to add software and firmware with license issues while are required by "the market", pardon me for generating that confusion.

However I don't think Ubuntu is a distro oriented to desktop anymore. I mean, Canonical put all the effort to make it happen but it ditched everything when decided to terminate the Unity desktop.

Now is focused on the cloud and IOT as all the others competitors, but it needs the desktop version as well because is the way how it advertises its business. PR is the main marketing strategy of Canonical, for that reason we have gazzillion of blogs, tutorials, podcasts, yt videos talking about Ubuntu. Without the desktop version there will be nothing to talk about...
You're right - there will be nothing to talk about without Ubuntu desktop.

Canonical shifted its business strategy because that's where the money is, but the Ubuntu community it depends upon still uses it for the desktop. Without that Ubuntu community, it's nothing.

As a server OS, Linux is pretty much a commodity. How does Ubuntu distinguish itself from the others? It doesn't, really. It's basically Debian for enterprises who want someone to write checks to.

There are a lot of people in business who will spend a ton more money for an inferior headache-ridden product just because they don't trust any product they don't spend a ton of money at. It's a power trip. They want to hold power over vendors (and others). A big fat check means that they can threaten to take their business elsewhere. They think this means the vendor will kiss their ass and bend over backwards to cater to them.

It's a lamentable mentality which funds a ton of crummy software.

But I don't think it's enough to keep people buying Ubuntu if Microsoft buys it and cripples it.
'll never stay under Ubuntu in that case... just remembering the plague of Wubi under M$ years ago... and that's not to hard to move back to an old good Debian, so..... :)!
Regrettably, I find it hard not to consider this entirely credible. And, if it were to happen, the same promises would be made to the faithful, like they were to Sun Microsystems customers and community following Oracle’s acquisition, or IBM’s acquisition of Red Hat. The promise being that the jewels will be left untouched and respected.